New data support idea that decline in religion may be ending, especially among young men
Gallup finds young adult interest in faith correlates with Republican politics
Although the data is far from conclusive regarding long-term trends, there appears to be increasing support for the belief that a decades-long decline in religious affiliation or interest may be leveling off or possibly reversing. And the reversal, to the extent it exists, may be especially pronounced among young men.
Such are the conclusions that might be drawn from two recent batches of data: a Barna report from its State of the Church inititive last month and an analysis released today by the Gallup polling organization of polls conducted in 2024-25.
Long-term trends about religious beliefs and practices can be difficult to determine because of the variety of definitions used in the various studies and that changes, when they occur, may fall within the range of the margin of error in a given year. However, data accumulated since the days of the covid epidemic seem to show that the rate of disaffiliation from organized religious in the United States has leveled off and possibly reversed, and that during an even more recent period that men have started showing more interest than women do in religion, a reversal from the situation during many decades.
Here's a quick look at the two surveys:
Barna: Gen Z most likely to expect spiritual revival
Although a Barna survey of 1,073 Americans in February didn't directly measure interest in matters of faith, it did so indirectly by finding that young adults are more likelier than their older peers expect spiritual revival. This may reflect that generation's attitudes toward spirituality in general.
While the survey found 29 percent of adults believe a spiritual revival probably or definitely will happen in the next 12 months, among Gen Z adults (those born since 1999) that number rises to 38 percent. Among boomers, the oldest adults in the survey, those born between 1946 and 1964, only 28 percent have such an expectation.
That isn't a lot of data, as the survey did not include a definition of spiritual revival, but it's enough for Barna's CEO, David Kinnaman, to say something is stirring. “The research doesn't predict a revival,” he said. “… Yet it reveals something worth paying attention to: a large number of Americans believe one is possible, and for younger adults especially, that belief is being forged in some of the most difficult circumstances of their lives.”
Of the Gen Z surveyed, 42 percent of those expecting a revival gave mental health challenges as the top reason. Among boomers expecting a revival, 60 percent said one would occur because of younger generations turning to God.
Gallup: Men increasingly find religion ‘very important’
The Gallup study, based on data from 2024-25, shows a sharp increase of young men (ages 18-29) who say that religion is “very important” in their lives. The number is up from 28 percent in 2022-23 to 42 percent in the most recent report.
During the same period, young women's attachment to religion stayed steady at about 30 percent.
Gallup noted in the study:
With the recent surge in their attachment to religion, young men have returned to the high point of their expressed religiosity of the past 25 years, roughly tying the 43 percent found in 2000-2001. By contrast, women of all age groups and older men are at or near their historical lows.
Gallup also noted that the percentage of young men reporting they attended religious services at least once a month has also risen. The number is now at 40 percent, contrasted with around 33 percent from 2016 to 2023.
In contrast, religious attendance for older adults is at or near its lowest during this century.
Gallup also found a partisan divide: From the 2022-23 study until the most recent report, attendance has risen 7 percentage points among young Republican men, 8 points among young Republican women and 3 points among young Democratic men. Attendance rates among young Democratic women were essentially unchanged.
Gallup summarized the results of its study like this:
The religiosity of Americans as a whole remains at a low ebb, with the importance of religion to people, their self-reported attendance and their identification with a religion all holding at or near the lowest levels in Gallup's long-term trends. Yet young men appear to be the emerging exception to the rule.